2019.08.16
Especially for World Geostrategic Insights, we talked about this with Yasir Masood.
On August 7, 2019, the upper house of the Indian parliament voted to repeal Section 370 of the Constitution, which gives Jammu and Kashmir special status. This decision was approved by the Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, according to which the arrangement of the disputed territory should be reorganized. Meanwhile, such a legislative initiative was the basis for the escalation of the conflict between Pakistan and India. So, in response to the cancellation of the special status of the region of Islamabad in the person of the country’s Prime Minister Imran Khan, he said that the Pakistani army “will do everything” to help Kashmir. In turn, New Delhi sent an additional 25,000 troops to the region. Does this mean that a war could begin between Pakistan and India in the near future? Are diplomatic methods for resolving a territorial dispute over the status of Kashmir exhausted today?
Thus, India raised a “political storm” that turned out to be virtually uncontrollable, making peace between India and Pakistan impossible.
India and Pakistan, since 1947, have been at enmity, and there have already been two full-scale wars between the countries, with the exception of sporadic cross-border shelling. The escalation between India and Pakistan is extremely high, given India’s move to repeal Section 370 of the Constitution. However, the last hope to level the conflict in Kashmir rests on the decision of the Supreme Court of India, which may recognize the actions of the Indian government as unconstitutional. This can greatly ease tensions. Otherwise, the region should beware of the coming dark times, which are likely to go beyond the war between India and Pakistan.
In diplomatic terms, Islamabad is ready to resolve this territorial dispute if India sits at the negotiating table and prevents unrest in the region. Among other things, Pakistan will dispute the repeal of Articles 370 of the Indian Constitution at the International Court of Justice and the UN Security Council.
Russia, as a member of the UN Security Council, can play an important role in normalizing the situation between the two countries by taking tricky steps to convince New Delhi to reverse its decision.
The visit of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan to China immediately after the current tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad on August 9, 2019 clearly indicates the key role that China can play internationally to condemn India’s move against Kashmir and the entire region. At the meeting, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi noted that the dispute over the status of Kashmir should be properly resolved “based on the UN Charter, relevant UN Security Council resolutions and a bilateral agreement.”
Regardless of whether India fulfills the terms of the Pakistani plan, it doesn’t matter at the moment, since the Pakistani armed forces are on high alert and intend to withstand any aggression if it comes from India or another state. For example, attacks on Pakistan are likely from Afghan territory, on the border with which we also expect active hostilities.
We expect both Beijing and Moscow to support us in the search for peace and security, which are essential not only to Pakistan, but to the entire region. An economically viable Pakistan, with the help of Beijing and Moscow, would dispel the intentions of hardliners.
China supports Pakistan economically through the Sino-Pakistan economic corridor, which operates smoothly. Recently, Beijing allowed Pakistani products to enter its market, which will increase Islamabad’s exports to China. Special economic zones will begin soon in Pakistan.
